The first debate between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is finally here. It airs tonight on CNN.
Both campaigns agreed to the network’s rules, which include muted microphones unless it is the candidate’s turn to speak and no interactions with their staff during commercial breaks.
The debate will be moderated by the obviously biased Dana Bash and Jake Tapper. Tapper once referred to Trump’s presidency as a “long national nightmare” and has repeatedly compared Trump to Adolf Hitler.
Both of these factors, the rules and the moderators, benefit Biden.
The format in particular makes the debate unnatural for Trump, who thrives on quick-thinking and interjections to make his points and call out his opponents’ lies. Trump demonstrated this masterfully in 2016 while debating Hillary Clinton. His “because you’d be in jail” line is now an all-time moment in American presidential politics.
The problem with Trump’s style is it has the opposite effect if used in excess. The traits that helped him win his debates in 2015 and 2016 arguably cost him his sole debate against Biden in 2020.
So if Trump wants any chance of winning the debate, he’ll have to resist his own urge to interrupt Biden and the moderators. And assuming he can do that (which is no guarantee), he faces an even more consequential challenge: countering the prevailing narrative about being a threat democracy, his refusal to concede the election and January 6, and his criminal conviction in New York. These are among the most significant issues Trump must overcome to win independent voters
It’s true that many millions of Americans don’t care about any of these topics; they will vote for Trump regardless. But there are a significant number who do.
A Morning Consult poll taken just days after Trump’s guilty verdict showed 8 percent of his voters from 2020 were now supporting Biden or another candidate. A Yahoo! News/YouGov poll from earlier this month found most Americans do not see Trump as a victim after the verdict. 49 percent see Trump as “more of a criminal,” while just 34 percent see him as “more of a victim.” A Politico poll released last week found 32 percent of independents said they were less likely to support Trump after his conviction, compared to 17 percent who said they were more likely to support him. Even 7 percent of Republicans said the conviction made them less likely to support Trump.
So how does Trump address these issues? In many ways, he’s had four years to prepare this moment. If his advisers have served him well, they will have explained that he shouldn’t address Biden or the moderators when answering for January 6, “the end of democracy,” or the legal cases against him. Instead, he should address the American people directly. Here’s how.
On January 6
Trump should not delve into any of the specific details about January 6 or the lead up to the events. Most Americans don’t have the time or capacity to research the specifics regarding Ray Epps, undercover FBI agents, or the DNC pipe bomber.
Trump should explain how the media and Democrat Party have weaponized the events of January 6 to demonize his supporters. He should expose some of the greatest myths of that day, like the lie that several police officers were killed on January 6. The truth is not a single police officer was killed. Trump should agree that some rioters that day, particularly those on the west side of the Capitol, were violent. But he should also note that hundreds of other J6ers were imprisoned for nonviolent acts like 70-year-old cancer patient Pam Hemphill, who was sentenced to two months in prison for “parading, demonstrating or picketing in the Capitol building.” Or Jacob Chansley, better known as the QAnon Shaman, who was sentenced to 41 months in prison despite literally being let into the Capitol by Capitol Police.
Trump should also make the point that Biden has launched the largest federal investigation in the nation’s history to largely prosecute people who were not a physical threat. He should add that Biden has sent FBI agents flying across the country conducting raids on American citizens while allowing tens of millions of foreigners, many with violent criminal backgrounds, to pour into the country.
On Being a Threat to Democracy
Trump should say a version of the following:
“Joe, you want to talk about the threats to democracy? Joe Biden is the man—the supposed Catholic—who is arresting peaceful pro-life protesters, attempting to send them to prison for 10 years. He is the one trying to imprison a doctor in Texas named Eithan Haim for ten years for exposing heinous gender mutilation procedures against children. Joe Biden is the one jailing my allies, like Steve Bannon and Peter Navarro. He is trying to jail me. Joe, is it normal to jail your opponents in a democracy?”
Trump should easily be able to answer questions about threats to democracy. There are plenty of examples of Biden violating norms and prosecuting his political enemies. He has consistently ignored the Supreme Court. He has used his power to censor Americans on social media.
None of these things are hallmarks of democracy.
On His Conviction
Arguably the most difficult issue to address, just given the legal intricacies involving the New York hush money trial, Trump should focus on the fact that his case was elevated from a misdemeanor to a felony in a jurisdiction that does the opposite for violent criminals. Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg downgraded 60 percent of all felonies to misdemeanors at the same time he was stretching the law to charge Trump with a felony. He should also note how violent crime is rampant in New York City, yet officials chose to prosecute him over a supposed campaign finance violation that Democrats like Hillary Clinton were able to resolve by paying a fine.
On the other cases, like the classified document case, Trump should easily be able to explain how Biden too is guilty of mishandling classified documents. On the January 6 case in D.C. and the election trial in Georgia, Trump may have a more difficult time. For these cases, Trump should stick to his usual talking points about how none of these charges would have been brought had he decided not to seek the presidency.
Trump Must Know His Audience
It’s imperative for Trump to be very specific when citing facts and examples throughout the debate. Because he usually only speaks to crowds filled with his most diehard supporters, he is used to talking to voters who are generally informed on conservative political news. But this isn’t a Fox News audience. Millions of independents will be watching. Many viewers will have never heard of the above examples, or the topics Trump runs through during every rally. Trump shouldn’t speak in language that assumes the viewer knows what he’s talking about.
Can He Do It?
I’ve watched Trump long enough to know when he’s being effective and when he’s acting like his own worst enemy. That was the difference between 2016 and 2020. These days, it’s unclear which Trump we’re going to get. Since leaving office, Trump has shown glimpses of his 2016 self. Other times, in some interviews and rallies, he’s rambling, off topic, and repetitive.
The question is whether Trump can be disciplined and prepared enough to showcase his best instincts while shelving his worst ones. If he can do that, he can win the debate. And winning the debate usually correlates to winning independent voters, who are the key to Trump’s victory.